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How does the Ecohesion toolkit work?

Once users enter the Ecohesion Simulator, they work inside a scenario workspace designed to connect policy choices directly with their projected socio-economic and environmental effects.The left-hand side of the interface contains the policies and assumptions that can be activated or adjusted. The right-hand side displays the results of the simulation through interactive graphs and, where relevant, through maps of the Italian regions. This structure allows users to move directly from a policy intervention to the analysis of its projected consequences over time.

Choosing policies and building scenarios

Policies can be activated individually or combined into alternative policy mixes. Some policies are controlled through simple on/off selectors, while others include sliders or parameters that define the intensity, timing, or design of the intervention.Users can, for example:
  • • Introduce a carbon tax.
  • • Modify the pace of electrification
  • • Activate renewable energy policies.
  • • Introduce minimum or maximum wage rules.
  • • Change labour taxation schemes.
  • • Strengthen redistributive transfers or public services.
The assumptions section works in a similar way, but it refers to contextual drivers and scenario settings rather than direct policy instruments.This structure allows users to start with a simple exercise and progressively add complexity. A user may first activate a single policy and observe its effects in isolation, and then introduce complementary measures to explore whether specific policy combinations reduce trade-offs or generate new synergies.The “Summary of changes” section helps users keep track of the choices included in the current scenario.

Reading the graphs

The simulator displays the evolution of selected indicators from 2010 to 2050. Users can choose indicators belonging to different evaluation criteria, including affluence, fairness, mitigation, and wellbeing.The timeline is important. The Ecohesion Simulator is not designed only to display a final outcome in 2050. It allows users to observe the entire transition pathway: whether policy effects emerge immediately or gradually, whether adjustment costs are temporary or persistent, and whether the direction of change remains stable over time. In policy analysis, the trajectory often matters as much as the endpoint.

Using compare mode

Users can also activate compare mode. In this case, the simulator displays two or more trajectories simultaneously, allowing users to compare scenarios directly.The distance between trajectories shows the relative effect of different policy mixes over time. This makes it possible to compare not only long-term outcomes, but also the dynamics of transition pathways. Some scenarios may converge toward similar outcomes in 2050 while following very different adjustment processes along the way.

Exploring different evaluation criteria

The same scenario can be explored through different groups of indicators associated with the four evaluation criteria.
  • • s describe economic activity, investment, productivity, consumption, and public expenditure.
  • • Fairness indicators capture distributional outcomes such as inequality, poverty, income shares, wage distribution, and gender gaps.
  • • Mitigation indicators track emissions, renewable energy transition, energy systems, carbon intensity, energy spending, and energy poverty.
  • • Wellbeing indicators focus on dimensions such as access to services, social relationships, trust, neighbourhood quality, free time, environmental satisfaction, and life satisfaction.
Looking across these dimensions is essential. A scenario that performs well on emissions reduction may still generate tensions in terms of poverty or energy affordability. Likewise, a redistributive policy may improve fairness while raising questions about public budgets or long-term growth. The simulator helps users identify these tensions and search for more balanced transition pathways.

Regional results and maps

In addition to national graphs, the simulator presents selected results through regional maps of Italy. These maps allow users to compare territorial outcomes and assess whether specific transition pathways strengthen or weaken regional cohesion.Regional indicators include, among others, household carbon footprints, disposable income, employment, inequality measures, gender employment gaps, consumption composition, and selected wellbeing-related dimensions.

How to interpret the results

The results should be interpreted as conditional projections. They show what the model estimates could happen if the selected assumptions and policy settings were applied as specified. They are not forecasts of what must happen, nor do they replace political judgement, institutional knowledge, or empirical evaluation.Their value lies in making policy consequences more visible, comparable, and discussable.A useful way to work with the simulator is iterative: users can activate a policy, select relevant indicators, compare scenarios, inspect regional outcomes, and progressively refine policy mixes. Repeating this process helps users better understand which combinations of policies appear more coherent when affluence, fairness, mitigation, wellbeing, and regional cohesion are considered together.Once registered, users can save scenarios, share results, compare different policy mixes, and participate in collective discussion and evaluation through the platform. The Ecohesion Simulator is therefore designed not only as an individual exploration tool, but also as a collaborative environment for discussing ecological transition pathways.